Weather Alert in Texas
Hydrologic Outlook issued August 24 at 1:34AM CDT by NWS Brownsville TX
AREAS AFFECTED: Brooks, TX
DESCRIPTION: ESFBRO The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in Deep South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the creek could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Falfurrias forecast point will rise above 2.2 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [08/20/2025 - 11/18/2025] Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Los Olmos Creek Falfurrias 11.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.7 4.5 4.9 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the creek and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month.
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Weather Topic: What are Nimbostratus Clouds?
Home - Education - Cloud Types - Nimbostratus Clouds
Next Topic: Precipitation
A nimbostratus cloud is similar to a stratus cloud in its formless,
smooth appearance. However, a nimbostratus cloud is darker than a stratus cloud,
because it is thicker.
Unlike a stratus cloud, a nimbostratus cloud typically brings with it the threat
of moderate to heavy precipitation. In some cases, the precipitation may evaporate
before reaching the ground, a phenomenon known as virga.
Next Topic: Precipitation
Weather Topic: What is Rain?
Home - Education - Precipitation - Rain
Next Topic: Shelf Clouds
Precipitation in the form of water droplets is called rain.
Rain generally has a tendency to fall with less intensity over a greater period
of time, and when rainfall is more severe it is usually less sustained.
Rain is the most common form of precipitation and happens with greater frequency
depending on the season and regional influences. Cities have been shown to have
an observable effect on rainfall, due to an effect called the urban heat island.
Compared to upwind, monthly rainfall between twenty and forty miles downwind of
cities is 30% greater.
Next Topic: Shelf Clouds
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